THE THEORY OF INTEREST
effect of a price change is assumed to begin the first yearafter the change and to cease at the end of 16 years. Theweighted average of the distributed lag is 5.3 years. Thelongest distribution shown at the right is from 1 to 32years, or a weighted average of 10.7 years.
•- -- - Paired items
-(P'aud i) vary frcs
28 pairs in 8 yeardistribution range to12 pairs in 24 yearrange.
- 16 paired items
(P* and i) for years1912-1927 in alldistribution ranges.
.-8 1-10 1-12 1-14 1-16 1-18 1-20 1-22 1-24
Av.=2.7 3.3 4.0 5.3 6.0 6.7 7.3 8.0 9.3
Distributed Lag, in Years, of 1in respect to P'
CHART 47
Correlation Coefficients Between P' and i for Various Distributionsof Lag. P is the Combined Effect at Any Point of Time of the In-fluence of Preceding P 's with Lags Distributed. Yearly Data, United
The charts picture only the effects of the distributedlag when interest rates follow behind price changes.
Experiment proved that when price changes werelagged behind the distributed influence of changing in-terest rates, the correlation coefficients were too small tohave any significance.
The high and consistent correlations shown in the
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