150 THE GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLOYMENT BK. IV

liner, a building in the City of London amounts tolittle and sometimes to nothing; or even five yearshence. In fact, those who seriously attempt to makeany such estimate are often so much in the minoritythat their behaviour does not govern the market.

In former times, when enterprises were mainlyowned by those who undertook them or by their friendsand associates, investment depended on a sufficientsupply of individuals of sanguine temperament and con-structive impulses who embarked on business as a wayof life, not really relying on a precise calculation of pro-spective profit. The affair was partly a lottery, thoughwith the ultimate result largely governed by whetherthe abilities and character of the managers were aboveor below the average. Some would fail and somewould succeed. But even after the event no one wouldknow whether the average results in terms of the sumsinvested had exceeded, equalled or fallen short of theprevailing rate of interest; though, if we exclude theexploitation of natural resources and monopolies, it isprobable that the actual average results of investments,even during periods of progress and prosperity, havedisappointed the hopes which prompted them. Busi-ness men play a mixed game of skill and chance, theaverage results of which to the players are not knownby those who take a hand. If human nature felt notemptation to take a chance, no satisfaction (profitapart) in constructing a factory, a railway, a mine or afarm, there might not be much investment merely as aresult of cold calculation.

Decisions to invest in private business of the old-fashioned type were, however, decisions largely irrevoc-able, not only for the community as a whole, but alsofor the individual. With the separation betweenownership and management which prevails to-day andwith the development of organised investment markets,a new factor of great importance has entered in, whichsometimes facilitates investment but sometimes adds