156 THE GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLOYMENT BK. IV

of Old Maid, of Musical Chairs—a pastime in whichhe is victor who says Snap neither too soon nor too late,who passes the Old Maid to his neighbour before thegame is over, who secures a chair for himself when themusic stops. These games can be played with zestand enjoyment, though all the players know that it isthe Old Maid which is circulating, or that when themusic stops some of the players will find themselvesunseated.

Or, to change the metaphor slightly, professionalinvestment may be likened to those newspaper com-petitions in which the competitors have to pick out thesix prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, theprize being awarded to the competitor whose choicemost nearly corresponds to the average preferences ofthe competitors as a whole; so that each competitorhas to pick, not those faces which he himself findsprettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catchthe fancy of the other competitors, all of whom arelooking at the problem from the same point of view.It is not a case of choosing those which, to the best ofone’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even thosewhich average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest.We have reached the third degree where we devoteour intelligences to anticipating what average opinionexpects the average opinion to be. And there aresome, I believe, who practise the fourth, fifth andhigher degrees.

If the reader interjects that there must surely belarge profits to be gained from the other players in thelong run by a skilled individual who, unperturbed bythe prevailing pastime, continues to purchase invest-ments on the best genuine long-term expectations hecan frame, he must be answered, first of all, that thereare, indeed, such serious-minded individuals and thatit makes a vast difference to an investment marketwhether or not they predominate in their influence overthe game-players. But we must also add that there are