At the same date (June 14, 1941) a general census was takenof all foreign-owned United States assets, showing a grand totalof $12,739 million, exclusive of ear-marked gold, which hasbeen brought up to date in Table II above. A detailed analysisof this census was published by the U.S. Treasury in 1945 underthe title " Census of foreign-owned assets in the United States ."
If the figures are restricted to the more or less liquid reservesof foreign countries held in the United States at the end of thewar in the shape of ear-marked gold, bank balances and marketsecurities, the aggregate is of the order of $15 billion, and hasincreased since the end of 1938 by some $9 billion. This hugemovement, most of which represents a gain by foreign countriesat the expense of the United States , has been largely overlookedby commentators in this country.
Table VII
S billion.
(a) Short-term assets held in the United States (Table IV) . . 6-4
(6) Ear-marked gold (Table III).......4-0
(c) Market Securities (Table II) (compared with $3,825 billion at the
end of 1938).......... 4-6
150
So far we have been concerned with firm statistics relating tothe present position and the most recent pre-war experience.How materially has this been changed by what there is goodreason to expect in the immediately ensuing period ?
The sterling prices of goods entering into foreign trade arerunning at the present time at not much less than double pre-war.This ratio is rather too high for dollar prices. But for con-venience of calculation an assumption of double pre-war priceswill be used in what follows. The results can be easily adjustedto alternative assumptions. (A lower figure for prices wouldprobably ease the eventual problem on balance.)
On this price assumption the average level of imports imme-diately before the war would be worth rather less than $5 billion.American experts are expecting a considerably higher figure thanthis after the war, even as much as 50% higher, on account ofthe greatly increased activity of the American industrial machineand its increased consumption of imported raw materials as soonas they are available in the required volume. The American view may perhaps be regarded as in part a reflection of the vividconsciousness of the need for maintaining domestic prosperitycurrently in evidence in the United States ; for, as appears fromTable I above, an index of imports shows annual changes in the