10

ESSAYS IN PERSUASION

PART

20,000,000 tons is the maximum possibleexport with a problematic (and in fact) im-possible increase to 40,000,000 tons at somefuture time; even on the basis of 20,000,000tons we have virtually no increase of value,measured in pre-war prices; whilst, if thisamount is exacted, there must be a decrease offar greater value in the export of manufacturedarticles requiring coal for their production.(4) Woollen goods. An increase is impossiblewithout the raw wool, and, having regard tothe other claims on supplies of raw wool, adecrease is likely. (5) Cotton goods. Thesame considerations apply as to wool. (6)Cereals. There never was and never can bea net export. (7) Leather goods. The sameconsiderations apply as to wool.

We have now covered nearly half of Ger-many ’s pre-war exports, and there is no othercommodity which formerly represented asmuch as 3 per cent of her exports. In whatcommodity is she to pay? Dyes?—their totalvalue in 1913 was £10,000,000. Toys?Potash?—1913 exports were worth £3,000,000.And even if the commodities could be specified,in what markets are they to be sold?—re-membering that we have in mind goods tothe value not of tens of millions annually,but of hundreds of millions.

On the side of imports, rather more ispossible. By lowering the standard of life,an appreciable reduction of expenditure onimported commodities may be possible. But,