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Essays in persuasion / John Maynard Keynes
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5- War Debts and the United States (i) Cancellation (1921)

Who believes that the Allies will, over aperiod of one or two generations, exert adequateforce over the German Government, or that theGerman Government can exert adequate autho-rity over its subjects, to extract continuingfruits on a vast scale from forced labour? Noone believes it in his heart; no one at all. Thereis not the faintest possibility of our persistingwith this affair to the end. But if this is so,then, most certainly, it will not be worth ourwhile to disorder our export trades and disturbthe equilibrium of our industry for two or threeyears; much less to endanger the peace ofEurope.

The same principles apply with one modifica-tion to the United States and to the exaction byher of the debts which the Allied Governmentsowe. The industries of the United States would suffer, not so much from the competitionof cheap goods from the Allies in their en-deavours to pay their debts, as from the inabilityof the Allies to purchase from America theirusual proportion of her exports. The Allies would have to find the money to pay America,

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