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ESSAYS IN PERSUASION

PART

what carefully the statistical measure of thechange from the pre-war position. Accordingto their estimates, America is now owed moreinterest on foreign investments than is due fromher, quite apart from the interest on the debtsof the Allied Governments; and her mercantilemarine now earns from foreigners more thanshe owes them for similar services. Her excessof exports of commodities over imports ap-proaches $3000 million a year; whilst, on theother side of the balance, payments, mainly toEurope , in respect of tourists and of immigrantremittances are estimated at not above $1000million a year. Thus, in order to balance theaccount as it now stands, the United States must lend to the rest of the world, in one shapeor another, not less than $2000 million a year,to which interest and sinking fund on theEuropean Governmental War Debts would, ifthey were paid, add about $600 million.

Recently, therefore, the United States musthave been lending to the rest of the world,mainly Europe , something like $2000 milliona year. Fortunately for Europe , a fair propor-tion of this was by way of speculative purchasesof depreciated paper currencies. From 1919to 1921 the losses of American speculators fedEurope ; but this source of income can scarcelybe reckoned on permanently. For a time thepolicy of loans can meet the situation; but, asthe interest on past loans mounts up, it must inthe long run aggravate it.

Mercantile nations have always employed