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Essays in persuasion / John Maynard Keynes
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I

THE TREATY OF PEACE

57

American exporter, unable to scrap all at oncethe processes of production for export, may meetthe situation by lowering his prices; but whenthese have continued, say for two years, belowhis cost of production, he will be driven in-evitably to curtail or abandon his business.

It is useless for the United States to supposethat an equilibrium position can be reached onthe basis of her exporting at least as much as atpresent, and at the same time restricting herimports by a tariff. Just as the Allies demandvast payments from Germany , and then exer-cise their ingenuity to prevent her paying them,so the American Administration devises, withone hand, schemes for financing exports, and,with the other, tariffs which will make it asdifficult as possible for such credits to be repaid.Great nations can often act with a degree offolly which we should not excuse in an indi-vidual.

By the shipment to the United States of allthe bullion in the world, and the erection thereof a sky-scraping golden calf, a short postpone-ment may be gained. But a point may evencome when the United States will refuse gold,yet still demand to be paida new Midasvainly asking more succulent fare than thebarren metal of her own contract.

In any case the readjustment will be severe,and injurious to important interests. If, inaddition, the United States exacts payment ofthe Allied debts, the position will be intolerable.If she persevered to the bitter end, scrapped her