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Essays in persuasion / John Maynard Keynes
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I

THE TREATY OF PEACE

7i

ant contribution as an offset to what we our-selves pay to the United States . It will beinteresting to establish a rough balance-sheet.

In 1928 we shall receive from our Allies£12,800,000 and pay the United States £33,200,000; and by 1933 these figures willhave risen to £17,700,000 and £37,800,000.Thus apart from our share of German Repara-tions, we shall be paying annually in respectof War Debts about £20,000,000 more thanwe receive. Now if the Dawes Annuities arepaid by Germany in full, we shall come outjust aboutall-square. For the normalDawes Annuity when it has reached its fullfigure (less the service of German loans, etc.)will amount to £ 117,000,000, of which ourshare (excluding the receipts of other parts ofthe Empire) will be about £22,000,000.Mr. Churchill has estimated that in the currentfinancial year, 192829, our payments outwill be £32,845,000, and our total receiptsnearly £32,000,000.

It is not probable that these receipts will berealised in full. But it will enable us to sum-marise the situation if we assume for themoment that they are so realised. In thiscase, each Ally would be able to pay the UnitedStates out of their receipts from Germany .When the Allied Debt payments to the UnitedStates have reached their maximum amountunder the existing settlements, they will total£83,000,000 per annum (the average amountpayable annually over the whole period works