88

ESSAYS IN PERSUASION

PART

At any rate, under the influence of these twoforces—the financial necessities of Governments and the political influence of the debtor class—sometimes the one and sometimes the other,the progress of inflation has been continuous , if weconsider long periods, ever since money was firstdevised in the sixth century b.c. Sometimesthe standard of value has depreciated of itself;failing this, debasements have done the work.

Nevertheless it is easy at all times, as a resultof the way we use money in daily life, to forgetall this and to look on money as itself theabsolute standard of value; and when, besides,the actual events of a hundred years have notdisturbed his illusions, the average man regardswhat has been normal for three generations asa part of the permanent social fabric.

The course of events during the nineteenthcentury favoured such ideas. During its firstquarter, the very high prices of the NapoleonicWars were followed by a somewhat rapid im-provement in the value of money. For the nextseventy years, with some temporary fluctuations,the tendency of prices continued to be down-wards, the lowest point being reached in 1896.But while this was the tendency as regardsdirection, the remarkable feature of this longperiod was the relative stability of the pricelevel. Approximately the same level of priceruled in or about the years 1826, 1841, 1855,1862, 1867, 1871, and 1915. Prices were alsolevel in the years 1844, 1881, and z 914. 1 If we

1 [And again, it is now possible to add, in 1931.]