122
ESSAYS IN PERSUASION
part
boldly, and were about to sink capital in newindustrial plant to the tune, between them, ofj£ioo millions, we should all expect to see agreat improvement in employment. And, ofcourse, we should be right. But, if the argu-ment we are dealing with were sound, we shouldbe wrong. We should have to conclude thatthese enterprising business men were merelydiverting capital from other uses, and that noreal gain to employment could result. Indeed,we should be driven to a still more remarkableconclusion. We should have to conclude thatit was virtually out of the question to absorb ourunemployed workpeople by any means what-soever (other than the unthinkable Inflation),and that the obstacle which barred the path wasno other than an insufficiency of capital. This,if you please, in Great Britain, who has surplussavings which she is accustomed to lend abroad onthe scale of more than a hundred millions a year.
The argument is certainly not derived fromcommon sense. No ordinary man, left to him-self, is able to believe that, if there had beenno housing schemes in recent years, there would,nevertheless, have been just as much employ-ment. And, accordingly, most ordinary menare easily persuaded by Mr. Lloyd George that,if his schemes for employment are adopted, moremen will be employed.
But the argument is not only unplausible.It is also untrue. There are three resourceswhich can enable new investment to provide anet addition to the amount of employment.