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THE RETURN TO GOI.D

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of the past. We have no sufficient ground forexpecting the continuance of the special con-ditions which preserved a sort of balance beforethe war. For what are the underlying explana-tions of the good behaviour of gold during thenineteenth century?

In the first place, it happened that progress inthe discovery of gold mines roughly kept pacewith progress in other directions—a corre-spondence which was not altogether a matterof chance, because the progress of that period,since it was characterised by the gradual open-ing up and exploitation of the world’s surface,not unnaturally brought to light pari passu theremoter deposits of gold. But this stage ofhistory is now almost at an end. A quarter ofa century has passed by since the discoveryof an important deposit. Material progress ismore dependent now on the growth of scientificand technical knowledge, of which the applica-tion to gold-mining may be intermittent. Yearsmay elapse without great improvement in themethods of extracting gold; and then the geniusof a chemist may realise past dreams and for-gotten hoaxes, transmuting base into preciouslike Subtle, or extracting gold from sea-water asin the Bubble. Gold is liable to be either toodear or too cheap. In either case, it is toomuch to expect that a succession of accidentswill keep the metal steady.

But there was another type of influence whichused to aid stability. The value of gold hasnot depended on the policy or the decisions of a

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