Ill

THE RETURN TO GOLD

2 77

An advocate of expansion in the interests ofdomestic employment has cause, therefore, tothink twice. I have thought twice, and thefollowing are my conclusions.

I am of the opinion that a policy of expansion,though desirable, is not safe or practicable to-day, unless it is accompanied by other measureswhich would neutralise its dangers. Let meremind the reader what these dangers are.There is the burden on the trade balance, theburden on the Budget, and the effect on con-fidence. If the policy of expansion were tojustify itself eventually by increasing materiallythe level of profits and the volume of employ-ment, the net effect on the Budget and onconfidence would in the end be favourable andperhaps very favourable. But this might notbe the initial effect.

What measures are available to neutralisethese dangers? A decision to reform the graveabuses of the dole, and a decision to postponefor the present all new charges on the Budgetfor social services in order to conserve its re-sources to meet schemes for the expansion ofemployment, are advisable and should be taken.But the main decision which seems to me to-dayto be absolutely forced on any wise Chancellorof the Exchequer, whatever his beliefs aboutProtection, is the introduction of a substantialrevenue tariff. It is certain that there is noother measure all the immediate consequencesof which will be favourable and appropriate.The tariff which I have in mind would include