ESSAYS IN PERSUASION

PART

284

There are only two possible lines of attack onthis. The one (which is the milder measureopen to us) consists in direct measures to restrictimports (and, if possible, subsidise exports);the other is a reduction of all money wageswithin the country. We may have to attemptboth in the end, if we refuse to devaluate.

But the immediate question is which to tryfirst. Now the latter course, if it were to beadequate, would involve so drastic a reductionof wages and such appallingly difficult, prob-ably insoluble, problems, both of social justiceand practical method, that it would be crazynot to try first the effects of the alternative,and much milder, measure of restricting im-ports.

It happens that this course also has otherimportant advantages. It will not only relievethe strain on the foreign exchanges, it wouldalso do more than any other single measure tobalance the Budget; and it is the only form oftaxation open to us which will actually increaseprofits, improve employment, and raise thespirits and the confidence of the business com-munity.

Finally, it is the only measure for which thereis (sensibly enough) an overwhelming supportfrom public opinion. It is credibly reportedthat the late Cabinet were in favour of a tariffin the proportion of three to one. It looks asif the present Cabinet may favour it in theproportion of four to one. The only thirdalternative Cabinet is unanimously for it. But