THE THEORY OF INTEREST
price change and the associated change in the interestrate. Chart 45 shows the results of lagging interest ratesbehind price changes on the one hand and lagging pricechanges behind interest rates on the other. For the UnitedStates , without lagging, r = + 0.289, while the highest
GREAT BRITAIN
- 1820-1864
- 1865-1897
■-*— 1898-1924
1820-1924
1900-1927
Log, in Years, of Interest Rates in respect to Price Changes
CHART 45
Correlation Coefficients Between P’ and i for Various Lags. YearlyData, Great Britain, 1820-1924; United States , 1890-1927.
correlation is + 0.406 when i is lagged 4 years. These re-sults suggest that no direct and consistent connection ofany real significance exists between P' and i.
The variations in r for different lags may be due to thezigzag cycles in the data correlated. The maximum value
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