48 THE GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLOYMENT BK. II

third day as on the second, and so on, even thoughthere be no further change in expectations. In the caseof short-term expectations this is because changes inexpectation are not, as a rule, sufficiently violent orrapid, when they are for the worse, to cause theabandonment of work on all the productive processeswhich, in the light of the revised expectation, it wasa mistake to have begun; whilst, when they are for thebetter, some time for preparation must needs elapsebefore employment can reach the level at which it wouldhave stood if the state of expectation had been revisedsooner. In the case of long-term expectations, equip-ment which will not be replaced will continue to giveemployment until it is worn out; whilst when thechange in long-term expectations is for the better, em-ployment may be at a higher level at first, than it willbe after there has been time to adjust the equipmentto the new situation.

If we suppose a state of expectation to continue fora sufficient length of time for the effect on employmentto have worked itself out so completely that there is,broadly speaking, no piece of employment going onwhich would not have taken place if the new state ofexpectation had always existed, the steady level ofemployment thus attained may be called the long-period employment1 corresponding to that state ofexpectation. It follows that, although expectation maychange so frequently that the actual level of employ-ment has never had time to reach the long-periodemployment corresponding to the existing state of ex-pectation, nevertheless every state of expectation hasits definite corresponding level of long-period em-ployment.

Let us consider, first of all, the process of transition

1 It is not necessary that the level of long-period employment should beconstant, i.e. long-period conditions are not necessarily static. For example,a steady increase in wealth or population may constitute a part of the un-changing expectation. The only condition is that the existing expectationsshould have been foreseen sufficiently far ahead.