CH. 5 EXPECTATION AND EMPLOYMENT 49

to a long-period position due to a change in expectation,which is not confused or interrupted by any further‘change in expectation. We will first suppose that thechange is of such a character that the new long-periodemployment will be greater than the old. Now, as arule, it will only be the rate of input which will bemuch affected at the beginning, that is to say, thevolume of work on the earlier stages of new processesof production, whilst the output of consumption-goodsand the amount of employment on the later stages ofprocesses which were started before the change willremain much the same as before. In so far as therewere stocks of partly finished goods, this conclusionmay be modified; though it is likely to remain truethat the initial increase in employment will be modest.As, however, the days pass by, employment will gradu-ally increase. Moreover, it is easy to conceive of con-ditions which will cause it to increase at some stage toa higher level than the new long-period employment.For the process of building up capital to satisfy the newstate of expectation may lead to more employment andalso to more current consumption than will occur whenthe long-period position has been reached. Thus thechange in expectation may lead to a gradual crescendoin the level of employment, rising to a peak and thendeclining to the new long-period level. The samething may occur even if the new long-period level isthe same as the old, if the change represents a changein the direction of consumption which renders certainexisting processes and their equipment obsolete. Oragain, if the new long-period employment is less thanthe old, the level of employment during the transitionmay fall for a time below what the new long-periodlevel is going to be. Thus a mere change in expecta-tion is capable of producing an oscillation of the samekind of shape as a cyclical movement, in the course ofworking itself out. It was movements of this kindwhich I discussed in my Treatise on Money in connectionE