ir
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nients of capital, she was entitled to a substantialamount annually without any payment in return atall. The second of these factors then seemed outof danger, but, as a result of the growth of popula-tion overseas, chiefly in the United States , the firstwas not so secure.
When first the virgin soils of America came intobearing, the proportions of the population of thosecontinents themselves, and consequently of their ownlocal requirements, to those of Europe were verysmall. As lately as 1890 Europe had a populationthree times that of North and South America addedtogether. But by 1914 the domestic requirements ofthe United States for wheat were approaching theirproduction, and the date was evidently near whenthere would be an exportable surplus only in yearsof exceptionally favourable harvest. Indeed, thepresent domestic requirements of the United States are estimated at more than ninety per cent of theaverage yield of the five years 1909-1913. 1 At thattime, however, the tendency towards stringency wasshowing itself, not so much in a lack of abundance
1 Even since 1914 the population of the United States has increased byseven or eight millions. As their annual consumption of wheat per head isnot less than six bushels, the pre-war scale of production in the UnitedStates would only show a substantial surplus over present domestic require-ments in about one year out of five. We have been saved for the momentby the great harvests of 1918 and 1919, which have been called forth by Mr.Hoover's guaranteed price. But the United States can hardly be expectedto continue indefinitely to raise by a substantial figure the cost of livingin its own country, in order to provide wheat for a Europe which cannotpay for it.