78 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE ch.

was never part of historic Poland ; but its populationis mixed Polish, German, and Czecho-Slovakian , theprecise proportions of which are disputed. 1 Eco-nomically it is intensely German; the industries ofEastern Germany depend upon it for their coal; andits loss would be a destructive blow at the economicstructure of the German State. 2

With the loss of the fields of Upper Silesia andthe Saar, the coal supplies of Germany are diminishedby not far short of one-third.

(iii.) Out of the coal that remains to her, Germany is obliged to make good year by year the estimatedloss which France has incurred by the destruction

and may be postponed until 1921. In the meantime the province will begoverned by an Allied Commission. The vote will be taken by communes,and the final frontiers will be determined by the Allies, who shall haveregard, partly to the results of the vote in each commune, and partly " tothe geographical and economic conditions of the locality." It would requiregreat local knowledge to predict the result. By voting Polish, a locality canescape liability for the indemnity and for the crushing taxation consequenton voting German, a factor not to be neglected. On the other hand, thebankruptcy and incompetence of the new Polish State might deter thosewho were disposed to vote on economic rather than on racial grounds. Ithas also been stated that the conditions of life in such matters as sanitationand social legislation are incomparably better in Upper Silesia than in theadjacent districts of Poland, where similar legislation is in its infancy.The argument in ,the text assumes that Upper Silesia will cease tobe German. But much may happen in a year, and the assumption is notcertain. To the extent that it proves erroneous the conclusions must bemodified.

1 German authorities claim, not without contradiction, that to judge fromthe votes cast at elections, one-third of the population would elect in thePolish interest, and two-thirds in the German.

2 It must not be overlooked, however, that, amongst the other concessionsrelating to Silesia accorded in the Allies ' Final Note, there has been includedArticle 90, by which "Poland undertakes to permit for a period of fifteenyears the exportation to Germany of the products of the mines in any part