IV

THE TREATY

91

be to export; to Germany , as hitherto, a considerablepart of the output of the mines.

On the other hand, France , having recovered thedeposits of Lorraine, may be expected to aim atreplacing as far as possible the industries, whichGermany had based on them, by industries situatedwithin her own frontiers. Much time must elapsebefore the plant and the skilled labour could bedeveloped within France , and even so she couldhardly deal with the ore unless she could rely onreceiving the coal from Germany . The uncertainty,too, as to the ultimate fate of the Saar will be disturb-ing to the calculations of capitalists who contemplatethe establishment of new industries in France .

In fact, here, as elsewhere, political considerationscut disastrously across economic. In a regime ofFree Trade and free economic intercourse it would beof little consequence that iron lay on one side of apolitical frontier, and labour, coal, and blast furnaceson the other. But as it is, men have devised ways toimpoverish themselves and one another; and prefercollective animosities to individual happiness. Itseems certain, calculating on the present passions andimpulses of European capitalistic society, that theeffective iron output of Europe will be diminished bya new political frontier (which sentiment and historicjustice require), because nationalism and privateinterest are thus allowed to impose a new economicfrontier along the same lines. These latter considera-