146 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE ch.

without examination of details. If this round sumhad been named in the Treaty , the settlement wouldhave been placed on a more business-like basis.

But this was impossible for two reasons. Twodifferent kinds of false statement had been widelypromulgated, one as to Germany 's capacity to pay,the other as to the amount of the Allies ' justclaims in respect of the devastated areas. The fixingof either of these figures presented a dilemma. Afigure for Germany 's prospective capacity to pay,not too much in excess of the estimates of mostcandid and well - informed authorities, would havefallen hopelessly far short of popular expectationsboth in England and in France . On the other hand,a definitive figure for damage done which would notdisastrously disappoint the expectations which hadbeen raised in France and Belgium might have beenincapable of substantiation under challenge, 1 andopen to damaging criticism on the part of theGermans, who were believed to have been prudentenough to accumulate considerable evidence as to theextent of their own misdoings.

By far the safest course for the politicians was,therefore, to mention no figure at all; and fromthis necessity a great deal of the complication of theReparation Chapter essentially springs.

1 The challenge of the other Allies, as well as of the enemy, had to bemet; for in view of the limited resources of the latter, the other Allies had perhaps a greater interest than the enemy in seeing that no one of theirnumber established an excessive claim.