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REPARATION

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it. 1 In the next section of this chapter the relationof this figure to Germany' s capacity to pay will beexamined. It is only necessary here to remindthe reader of certain other particulars of the Treaty which speak for themselves :

1. Out of the total amount of the claim, what-ever it eventually turns out to be, a sum of£1,000,000,000 must be paid before May 1, 1921.The possibility of this will be discussed below.But the Treaty itself provides certain abatements.In the first place, this sum is to include the expensesof the Armies of Occupation since the Armistice(a large charge of the order of magnitude of£200,000,000 which under another Article of theTreaty—No. 249 — is laid upon Germany) . 2 But

1 As a matter of subjective judgment, I estimate for this figure anaccuracy of 10 per cent in deficiency and 20 per cent in excess, i.e. that theresult will lie between £6,400,000,000 and £8,800,000,000.

2 Germany is also liable under the Treaty , as an addition to herliabilities for Reparation, to pay all the costs of the Armies of Occupationafter Peace is signed for the fifteen subsequent years of occupation. Sofar as the text of the Treaty goes, there is nothing to limit the size of thesearmies, and France could, therefore, by quartering the whole of her normalstanding army in the occupied area, shift the charge from her own tax-payers to those of Germany, —though in reality any such policy would beat the expense not of Germany , who by hypothesis is already paying forReparation up to the full limit of her capacity, but of France 's Allies, whowould receive so much less in respect of Reparation. A White Paper(Cmd. 240) has, however, been issued, in which is published a declarationby the Governments of the United States, Great Britain , and France engag-ing themselves to limit the sum payable annually by Germany to coverthe cost of occupation to £12,000,000, "as soon as the Allied and Asso-ciated Powers concerned are convinced that the conditions of disarmamentby Germany are being satisfactorily fulfilled." The word which I haveitalicised is a little significant. The three Powers reserve to themselvesthe liberty to modify this arrangement at any time if they agree thatit is necessary.