168 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE ch.

two tens of millions, not by fifties or hundreds. Hewould be a rash man, in my judgment, who joined asyndicate to pay £100,000,000 in cash for the un-sequestered remnant of Germany 's overseas invest-ments. If the Separation Commission is to realiseeven this lower figure, it is probable that they willhave to nurse, for some years, the assets which theytake over, not attempting their disposal at the presenttime.

We have, therefore, a figure of from £100,000,000to £250,000,000 as the maximum contribution fromGermany 's foreign securities.

Her immediately transferable wealth is composed,then, of—

(a) Gold and silver—say £60,000,000.(&.) Ships—£120,000,000.(c) Foreign securities—£100,000,000 to£250,000,000.Of the gold and silver, it is not, in fact, practi-cable to take any substantial part without conse-quences to the German currency system injurious tothe interests of the Allies themselves. The con-tribution from all these sources together which theReparation Commission can hope to secure by May1921 may be put, therefore, at from £250,000,000to £350,000,000 as a maximum. 1

1 In all these estimates I am conscious of being driven, by a fear of over-stating the case against the Treaty, into giving figures in excess of my ownreal judgment. There is a great difference between putting down on paperfancy estimates of Germany' s resources and actually extracting contributions