170 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF 7HE PEACE CH.

value of the Saar coalfields, the value of certainriver craft, etc., to be surrendered under the Ports,Waterways , and Railways Chapter, and the valueof the German submarine cables transferred underAnnex VII. of the Reparation Chapter.

Whatever the Treaty may say, the ReparationCommission will not secure any cash paymentsfrom Poland . I believe that the Saar coalfields havebeen valued at from £15,000,000 to £20,000,000.A round figure of £30,000,000 for all the aboveitems, excluding any surplus available in respect ofprivate property, is probably a liberal estimate.

There remains the value of material surrenderedunder the Armistice. Article 250 provides that acredit shall be assessed by the Reparation Com-mission for rolling - stock surrendered under theArmistice as well as for certain other specified items,and generally for any material so surrendered forwhich the Reparation Commission think that creditshould be given, "as having non-military value."The rolling-stock (150,000 wagons and 5000 loco-motives) is the only very valuable item. A roundfigure of £50,000,000, for all the Armistice surrenders,is probably again a liberal estimate.

We have, therefore, £80,000,000 to add in respectof this heading to our figure of £250,000,000 to£350,000,000 under the previous heading. Thisfigure differs from the preceding in that it does notrepresent cash capable of benefiting the financial