172 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES Of THE PEACE ch.

materials and food were to be restored to anythingapproaching their normal level by May 1921, Germany would probably require foreign purchasing powerof from £100,000,000 to £200,000,000 at least, inaddition to the value of her current exports. Whilethis is not likely to be permitted, I venture to assertas a matter beyond reasonable dispute that the socialand economic condition of Germany cannot possiblypermit a surplus of exports over imports during theperiod prior to May 1921, and that the value of anypayments in kind with which she may be able tofurnish the Allies under the Treaty in the form ofcoal, dyes, timber, or other materials will have to bereturned to her to enable her to pay for importsessential to her existence. 1

The Reparation Commission can, therefore, expectno addition from other sources to the sum offrom £100,000,000 to £200,000,000 with which wehave hypothetically credited it after the realisationof Germany 's immediately transferable wealth, thecalculation of the credits due to Germany under theTreaty , and the discharge of the cost of the Armiesof Occupation. As Belgium has secured a privateagreement with France, the United States, and GreatBritain, outside the Treaty , by which she is toreceive, towards satisfaction of her claims, the first

1 Here again my own judgment would carry me much further and I shoulddoubt the possibility of Germany' s exports equalling her imports duringthis period. But the statement in the text goes far enough for the purposeof my argument.