188 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE ch.

specific commodities they intend this payment tobe made, and in what markets the goods are to besold. Until they proceed to some degree of detail,and are able to produce some tangible argument infavour of their conclusions, they do not deserve tobe believed. 1

I make three provisos only, none of which affectthe force of my argument for immediate practicalpurposes.

First: if the Allies were to "nurse" the trade

1 As an example of public misapprehension on economic affairs, thefollowing letter from Sir Sidney Low to The Times of the 3rd December1918 deserves quotation: "I have seen authoritative estimates whichplace the gross value of Germany' s mineral and chemical resources ashigh as £250,000,000,000 sterling or even more ; and the Ruhr basinmines alone are said to be worth over £45,000,000,000. It is certain,at any rate, that the capital value of these natural supplies is muchgreater than the total war debts of all the Allied States. Why shouldnot some portion of this wealth be diverted for a sufficient period from itspresent owners and assigned to the peoples whom Germany has assailed,deported, and injured ? The Allied Governments might justly requireGermany to surrender to them the use of such of her mines and mineraldeposits as would yield, say, from 100 to 200 millions annually for thenext 30, 40, or 50 years. By this means we could obtain sufficientcompensation from Germany without unduly stimulating her manufacturesand export trade to our detriment." It is not clear why, if Germany haswealth exceeding £250,000 millions sterling, Sir Sidney Low is contentwith the trifling sum of 100 to 200 millions annually. But his letter isan admirable reductio ad absurdum of a certain line of thought. While amode of calculation, which estimates the value of coal miles deep in thebowels of the earth as high as in a coal scuttle, of an annual lease of£1000 for 999 years at £999,000 and of a field (presumably) at the valueof all the crops it will grow to the end of recorded time, opens up greatpossibilities, it is also double-edged. If Germany' s total resources areworth £250,000,000,000, those she will part with in the cession of Alsace-Lorraine and Upper Silesia should be more than sufficient to pay the entirecosts of the war and reparation together. In point of fact, the presentmarket value of all the mines in Germany of every kind has been estimatedat £300,000,000, or a little more than one-thousandth part of Sir SidneyLow' s expectations.