216 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE ch.

human progress for centuries, have been due tothe reactions following on the sudden termination,whether in the course of Nature or by the act ofman, of temporarily favourable conditions which havepermitted the growth of population beyond whatcould be provided for when the favourable conditionswere at an end.

The significant features of the immediate situationcan be grouped under three heads : first, the absolutefalling-off, for the time being, in Europe 's internalproductivity; second, the breakdown of transportand exchange by means of which its products couldbe conveyed where they were most wanted; andthird, the inability of Europe to purchase its usualsupplies from overseas.

The decrease of productivity cannot be easilyestimated, and may be the subject of exaggeration.But the prima facie evidence of it is overwhelming,and this factor has been the main burden of Mr.Hoovers well-considered warnings. A variety ofcauses have produced it; — violent and prolongedinternal disorder as in Eussia and Hungary ; thecreation of new governments and their inexperiencein the readjustment of economic relations, as inPoland and Czecho-Slovakia ; the loss throughoutthe Continent of efficient labour, through thecasualties of war or the continuance of mobilisation ;the falling-off in efficiency through continued under-feeding in the Central Empires; the exhaustion