218 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE ch.

productivity of the soil is now diminished by 40per cent and the effective quality of the livestock by 55 per cent. 1 Of the European countrieswhich formerly possessed a large exportable surplus,Russia, as much by reason of deficient transport asof diminished output, may herself starve. Hungary, apart from her other troubles, has been pillaged bythe Eoumanians immediately after harvest. Austria will have consumed the whole of her own harvestfor 1919 before the end of the calendar year.The figures are almost too overwhelming tocarry conviction to our minds ; if they were notquite so bad, our effective belief in them might bestronger.

But even when coal can be got and grainharvested, the breakdown of the European railwaysystem prevents their carriage; and even whengoods can be manufactured, the breakdown of theEuropean currency system prevents their sale. Ihave already described the losses, by war and underthe Armistice surrenders, to the transport system ofGermany. But even so, Germany' s position, takingaccount of her power of replacement by manufacture,is probably not so serious as that of some of herneighbours. In Russia (about which, however, wehave very little exact or accurate information)the condition of the rolling-stock is believed to be

1 Professor Starling's Report on Food Conditions in Germany. [Cnid.280.]