VI

EUROPE AFTER THE TREATY

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might have been expected to succeed the raising ofthe blockade was not in fact commercially possible. 1In the second place, it is a hazardous enterprise fora merchant or a manufacturer to purchase with aforeign credit material for which, when he has im-ported it or manufactured it, he will receive markcurrency of a quite uncertain and possibly unrealis-able value. This latter obstacle to the revival oftrade is one which easily escapes notice and deservesa little attention. It is impossible at the presenttime to say what the mark will be worth in termsof foreign currency three or six months or a yearhence, and the exchange market can quote no re-liable figure. It may be the case, therefore, that aGerman merchant, careful of his future credit andreputation, who is actually offered a short-periodcredit in terms of sterling or dollars, may be reluctantand doubtful whether to accept it. He will owesterling or dollars, but he will sell his product formarks, and his power, when the time comes, to turnthese marks into the currency in which he has torepay his debt is entirely problematic. Businessloses its genuine character and becomes no betterthan a speculation in the exchanges, the fluctuationsin which entirely obliterate the normal profits ofcommerce.

1 Theoretically an unduly low level of home prices should stimulateexports and so cure itself. But in Germany, and still more in Poland andAustria, there is little or nothing to export. There must be imports beforethere can be exports.