ch. vii REMEDIES 237

too much, but the other should remind him thatcatastrophes can still happen, and that modern societyis not immune from the very greatest evils.

In the chapters of this book I have not generallyhad in mind the situation or the problems of England ." Europe " in my narration must generally be inter-preted to exclude the British Isles. England is ina state of transition, and her economic problems areserious. We may be on the eve of great changes inher social and industrial structure. Some of us maywelcome such prospects and some of us deplore them.But they are of a different kind altogether fromthose impending on Europe . I do not perceive inEngland the slightest possibility of catastrophe orany serious likelihood of a general upheaval ofsociety. The war has impoverished us, but notseriously;—I should judge that the real wealth ofthe country in 1919 is at least equal to what it wasin 1900. Our balance of trade is adverse, but notso much so that the readjustment of it need disorderour economic life. 1 The deficit in our Budget is

1 The figures for the United Kingdom are as follows :

Monthly Average.

Net Imports.

Exports.

Excess of Imports.

£1000.

£1000.

£1000.

1913

54,930

43,770

11,160

1914

50,097

35,893

14,204

Jan.-Mar. 1919

109,578

49,122

60,456

April-June 1919

111,403

62,463

48,940

July-Sept. 1919

135,927

68,863

67,064

But this excess is hy

no means so serious

as it look

s ; for with the

present high freight-earnings of the mercantile marine the various "in-visible " exports of the United Kingdom are probably even higher than theywere before the war, and may average at least £45,000,000 monthly.