274 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE ch.

economic factors in the future relations of Central toEastern Europe ?

Before the war Western and Central Europe drewfrom Russia a substantial part of their importedcereals. Without Russia the importing countrieswould have had to go short. Since 1914 the loss ofthe Russian supplies has been made good, partly bydrawing on reserves, partly from the bumper harvestsof North America called forth by Mr. Hoover'sguaranteed price, but largely by economies of con-sumption and by privation. After 1920 the needof Russian supplies will be even greater than it wasbefore the war; for the guaranteed price in NorthAmerica will have been discontinued, the normal in-crease of population there will, as compared with1914, have swollen the home demand appreciably, andthe soil of Europe will not yet have recovered itsformer productivity. If trade is not resumed withRussia , wheat in 1920-21 (unless the seasons arespecially bountiful) must be scarce and very dear.The blockade of Russia , lately proclaimed by theAllies , is therefore a foolish and short-sighted pro-ceeding ; we are blockading not so much Russia asourselves.

The process of reviving the Russian export tradeis bound in any case to be a slow one. The presentproductivity of the Russian peasant is not believedto be sufficient to yield an exportable surplus on thepre-war scale. The reasons for this are obviously