1946] THE BALANCE OP PAYMENTS OP THE UNITED STATES 11

assumes that the whole of the present resources of the Export-Import Bank have been utilised. Nor does the amount of theAmerican subscription to the International Reconstruction Bank accurately measure what really matters in this context—namely,the volume of loans which the new Bank will be able to raise inthe American market, a figure which may, in the long run,either exceed or fall short of the amount of the American sub-scription as a member. Moreover the contributions to TJ.N.R.R.A.can be neglected for our present purpose; for they are a free giftwhich will help to preserve equilibrium in 1946 but will have noeffects on the balance of payments in later years.

The actual, as distinct from the potential, state of commit-ments as at the end of January, 1946, was stated by the Presidentin his Budget statement at that time as follows :—The loans andcommitments of the Export-Import Bank then stood at $l - 3billion out of its total authorisation of $3 - 5 billion. The President" anticipated that net expenditures of the Export-Import Bankand expenditures arising from the British credit and the BrettonWoods Agreement will amount to $2,614 million including thenon-cash item of $950 million for the Eund in the fiscal year 1946and $2,754 million in the fiscal year 1947."

What is the annual burden of interest which the rest of theworld will have undertaken on the basis of the present programme ?Current interest receipts from the International MonetaryFund will depend not only on the amount drawn upon, but alsoon the dividend policy of the Fund. It is not yet possible toenter any figure under this head. The Export-Import Bankrates of interest have varied between 2|% and 3%. The Lend-Lease settlements with France and Russia are at 2|%. TheBritish credit is at 2%, beginning on December 31, 1951. Theterms on which the International Bank will be able to borroware quite uncertain. To fix a base for our impression of theorder of magnitude, let us leave out U.N.R.R.A. and the sub-scription to the I.M.F. and assume that the rest costs 3% on theaverage (which one may hope is an outside estimate). The resultis an annual interest burden of $360 million. It will be seen,contrary perhaps to expectation, that the total is small comparedwith the other main items in our calculation. Treble it, and youhave only just exceeded $1 billion. And if you treble it thecorresponding increase of new loans would be sufficient to clearthe overall position for another decade or two. Moreover, itshould be repeated that the figure of $360 million looks someway ahead. For we have included interest on the British credit