1946] THE BALANCE OP PAYMENTS OP THE UNITED STATES 13

It is obvious that no country can go on for ever covering bynew lending a chronic surplus on current account without eventuallyforcing a default from the other parties. The above estimatesshow, nevertheless, that the United States can continue foreignlending on a substantial scale for many years to come before theinterest due becomes a major and burdensome element in thebalance of payments taken as a whole. Anyway, the aboveestimates are certainly not, for better or for worse, going tocontinue valid for an indefinite time. Much will happen whichwe cannot foresee. It is sufficient to cast one's prognosis amoderate distance forward. If we look forward a moderatedistance, what resources will the outside world possess to dischargewhat, in the light of the above, it may find itself owing to theUnited States on annual current account ?

These resources fall under three headings :—

1. Existing Resources in the U.S.

We have seen above that foreign-owned liquid resources inthe United States in the shape of ear-marked gold, bank balancesand market securities amount to at least $15 billion. It appearsfrom Table V that the more liquid resources are well spreadbetween a number of countries. Nevertheless, the countriesmost needing dollars are not necessarily those holding the largestbalances; and some of the countries with the largest amountsregard their dollar balances as part of their ultimate reserves(e.g., Canada) and are not likely to draw upon them fully exceptin extreme circumstances. Thus only a portion of the aboveaggregate can be regarded as easily available to cover a balance ofpayments favourable to the United States .

2. The New Projected Loans Themselves.

If we omit from Table IX the contributions to U.N.R.R.A. and the credits for Lend-Lease settlements which have beenalready, or shortly will be, spent, we are left with a total of $13billion; this will rise to $14-25 million if the Export-ImportBank's lending powers are increased, and it is presumably not theend, if we are looking five or ten years ahead.

3. Gold Reserves and Current Production.

The 1937-40 average output outside the U.S.S.R. was inexcess of $1 billion a year. In 1942—45 this fell to about $700million, on account of shortage of man-power and material. Alarge increase is now expected in Canada, and an increase, rather