THE CHARACTER OF THE PROBLEM 3

ships or merchant-men? Is it better that a20-year-old agricultural worker should be lefton the farm or taken into the army? Howgreat an expansion of the Army should wecontemplate? What reduction in working hoursand efficiency is justified in the interests ofA.R.P. ? One could ask a hundred thousandsuch questions, and the answer to each wouldhave a significant bearing on the amount leftover for civilian consumption.

We can start out either by fixing the standardof life of the civilian and discover what is leftover for the service departments and for export;or by adding up the demands of the latter anddiscover what is left over for the civilians. Theactual result will be a compromise between thetwo methods. At present it is hard to say who,if anyone, settles such matters. In the finaloutcome there seems to be a larger element ofchance than of design. It is a case of pull devil,pull baker—with the devil so far on top.

But it makes no great difference to the problemwe are now discussing whether the final resultis arrived at wisely or foolishly, by chance orby design. On the assumption that our totaloutput is as large as we know how to organise,a definite residual will be left over which is avail-able for civilian consumption. The amount ofthis residue will certainly be influenced by thereasonable requirements of the civilian population.If an acute shortage develops in a particulardirection, baker's pull will become stronger anddevil's weaker; and something will be done to