OUTPUT CAPACITY AND NATIONAL INCOME 13

CHAPTER III

OUR OUTPUT CAPACITY AND THENATIONAL INCOME

In order to calculate the size of the cake whichwill be left for civilian consumption, we have toestimate

(1) the maximum current output that we arecapable of organising from our resources ofmen and plant and materials,

(2) how fast we can safely draw on our foreignreserves by importing more than we export,

(3) how much of all this will be used up by ourwar effort.

The statistics from which to build up theseestimates are very inadequate. Every govern-ment since the last war has been unscientific andobscurantist, and has regarded the collection ofessential facts as a waste of money. There is noone to-day, inside or outside government offices,who does not mainly depend on the brilliantprivate efforts of Mr. Colin Clark (in his NationalIncome and Outlay, supplemented by later articles);but, in the absence of statistics which only agovernment can collect, he could often do nobetter than make a brave guess. The basis ofwhat foUows is given in more detail in AppendixI, prepared with the assistance of Mr. E. Rothbarth.

The money measure of our output capacity will,of course, vary according to the levels which are