12

ESSAYS IN PERSUASION

PART

maximum figure of Germany ’s capacity topay. In all the actual circumstances, I do notbelieve that she can pay as much.

There is only one head under which I see apossibility of adding to the figure reached onthe line of argument adopted above; that is,if German labour is actually transported tothe devastated areas and there engaged inthe work of reconstruction. I have heardthat a limited scheme of this kind isactually in view. The additional contributionthus obtainable depends on the number oflabourers which the German Governmentcould contrive to maintain in this way andalso on the number which, over a period ofyears, the Belgian and French inhabitantswould tolerate in their midst. In any case,it would seem very difficult to employ on theactual work of reconstruction, even over anumber of years, imported labour having a netpresent value exceeding (say) £250,000,000;and even this would not prove in practice a netaddition to the annual contributions obtainablein other ways.

A capacity of £8,000,000,000 or even of£5,000,000,000 is, therefore, not within thelimits of reasonable possibility. It is forthose who believe that Germany can make anannual payment amounting to hundreds ofmillions sterling to say in what specific com-modities they intend this payment to be made,and in what markets the goods are to be sold.Until they proceed to some degree of detail,