I

THE TREATY OF PEACE

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and are able to produce some tangible argu-ment in favour of their conclusions, they donot deserve to be believed.

I make three provisos only, none of whichaffect the force of my argument for immediatepractical purposes.

First: If the Allies were to “nurse” thetrade and industry of Germany for a periodof five or ten years, supplying her with largeloans, and with ample shipping, food, andraw materials during that period, building upmarkets for her, and deliberately applyingall their resources and goodwill to making herthe greatest industrial nation in Europe, ifnot in the world, a substantially larger sumcould probably be extracted thereafter; forGermany is capable of very great productivity.

Second: Whilst I estimate in terms of money,I assume that there is no revolutionary changein the purchasing power of our unit of value.If the value of gold were to sink to a half or atenth of its present value, the real burden of apayment fixed in terms of gold would be re-duced proportionately. If a gold sovereigncomes to be worth what a shilling is worth now,then, of course, Germany can pay a larger sumthan I have named, measured in gold sovereigns.

Third: I assume that there is no revolution-ary change in the yield of Nature and materialto man’s labour. It is not impossible that theprogress of science should bring within ourreach methods and devices by which the wholestandard of life would be raised immeasurably,