ii FROM THE TREATY TO CONFERENCE OF LONDON 35

the Decisions of Paris , responsible opinion expected160-200 milliards 1 ; and the author of The EconomicConsequences of the Peace had suffered widespreadcalumny for fixing on the figure of 137 milliards, 2 asbeing the nearest estimate he could make. Thepublic, and the Government also, were thereforetaken by surprise when the Eeparation Commissionannounced that they unanimously assessed the figureat 132 milliards 2 (i.e. £6,600,000,000 gold). It nowturned out that the Decisions of Paris, which hadbeen represented as a material amelioration of theTreaty which Germany was ungrateful not to accept,were no such thing ; and that Germany was at thatmoment suffering from an invasion of her territoryfor a refusal to subscribe to terms which were severerin some respects than the Treaty itself. I shallexamine the decision of the Eeparation Commissionin detail in Chapter IV. It put the question on anew basis and the Decisions of London could hardlyhave been possible otherwise.

The decision of the Eeparation Commission andthe arrival of the date, May 1, 1921, fixed in theTreaty for the promulgation of a definite Eeparationscheme, provided a sufficient ground for reopeningthe whole question. Germany had refused the De-cisions of Paris ; the Sanctions had failed to moveher; the regime of the Treaty was therefore reinstated ;

1 As late as January 26, 1921, M. Doumer gave a forecast of 240milliards.

2 Exclusive of sums due in repayment of war loans made to Belgium.