A REVISION OF THE TREATY

CHAP.

because I was careful from the outset to disclaimexpert knowledge of the subject. 1 I still find itdifficult, in the face of conflicting expert opinions,to know how much importance to attach to thismaterial. Since the Armistice there has been a sub-stantial increase in output, which was 36 per centhigher in the first half of 1921 than in 1913. 2 Inview of the acute shortage of coal this output musthave been of material assistance towards meeting thesituation. The deposits are near the surface, and nogreat amount of capital or machinery is needed forits production. But lignite briquette is a substitutefor coal for certain purposes only, and the evidenceis conflicting as to whether any further materialexpansion is economically practicable. 3

The process of briquetting the rough lignite isprobably a wasteful one, and it is doubtful whether

1 In The Economic Consequences of the Peace, p. 84 n., I wrote as follows :" The reader must be reminded in particular that the above calculationstake no account of the German production of lignite. ... I am notcompetent to speak on the extent to which the loss of coal can be made goodby the extended use of lignite or by economies in its present employment;but some authorities believe that Germany may obtain substantial com-pensation for her loss of coal by paying more attention to her deposits oflignite."

2 That is to say, production in the middle of 1921 was at the rate ofabout 120,000,000 tons per annum. At that time the legal maximum pricewas 60 paper marks per ton (i.e. 5s. or less); so that the national profit onthe output in terms of money cannot have been a very material amount.

* In order to secure the increased output the number of miners wasincreased much more than in proportion, namely from 59,000 in 1913 to171,000 in the first half of 1921. As a result, the cost of production oflignite rose much faster than that of coal. Also since its calorific value ismuch less than that of coal per unit of weight (even when it is briquetted),it can only compete with coal, unless it is assisted by preferential freightrates, within a limited area in the neighbourhood of the mines.