72 A REVISION OF THE TREATY chap.

Similarly the grant to Germany of foreign credits ona substantial scale, even three-months' credits frombankers on the security of the Eeichsbank's gold,would postpone the date a little, however useless inthe long run.

In reaching this conclusion, one can approach theproblem from three points of view: (1) the problem ofpaying outside Germany , that is to say, the problemof exports and the balance of trade ; (2) the problemof providing for payment by taxation, that is to say,the problem of the Budget; (3) the proportion of thesums demanded to the German national income.I will take them in turn, confining myself to whatGermany can be expected to perform in thenear future, to the exclusion of what she mightdo in hypothetical circumstances many yearshence.

(1) In order that Germany may be able to makepayments abroad, it is necessary, not only that sheshould have exports, but that she should have asurplus of exports over imports. In 1920, the lastcomplete year for which figures are available, sofar from a surplus there was a deficit, the exportsbeing valued at about 5 milliard gold marks and theimports at 5-4 milliards. The figures for 1921 so faravailable indicate, not an improvement, but adeterioration. The myth that Germany is carryingon a vast and increasing export trade is so wide-spread, that the actual figures for the six months