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A revision of the treaty : being a sequel to The economic consequences of the peace / by John Maynard Keynes
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So

A REVISION OF THE TREATY

CHAP.

of 1920, estimated the German income per head at3900 paper marks. This figure may have been toolow at the time, and, on account of the furtherdepreciation of the mark, is certainly too low now.A writer in the Deutsche Allgemeine Zeitung (Feb. 14,1921), working on the statistics of statutory deductionsfrom wages and on income-tax, arrived at a figure of2333 marks per head. This figure also is likely tobe too low, partly because the statistics must mainlyrefer to earlier dates when the mark was less depreci-ated, and partly because all such statistics necessarilysuffer from evasions. At the other extreme lies theestimate of Dr. Albert Lansburgh, who, by implication{Die Bank, March 1921), estimated the income perhead at 6570 marks. 1 Another recent estimate isthat of Dr. Arthur Heichen in the Pester Lloyd(June 5, 1921), who put the figure at 4450 marks. Ina newspaper article published in various quarters inAugust 1921 I ventured to adopt the figure of 5000marks as the nearest estimate I could make. Infixing on this figure I was influenced by the aboveestimates, and also by statistics as to the general levelof salaries and wages. Since then I have lookedinto the matter further and am still of the opinion thatthis figure was high enough for that date.

1 " This estimate is based on an average wage of about 800 paper marksmonthly for male, and about 400 paper marks monthly for female,employes." Converting these figures at the rate of 12 paper marks equalto 1 gold mark, he arrived at an aggregate national income between 30and 34 milliard gold marks. It is not easy to see how these wage estimates,even assuming their correctness, can lead to so high an aggregate figure.