92 A REVISION OF THE TREATY chap.

article without feeling conscious of any intellectualinconsistency ; and it furnishes what so many peopleare now looking for, namely, a pretext for behavingsensibly, without having to suffer the indignity andinconvenience of thinking and speaking so too.Heaven forbid that I should discourage them ! It isonly too rarely that a good cause can summon to itsassistance arguments sufficiently mixed to ensuresuccess.

EXCURSUS IV

THE MAEK EXCHANGE

The gold value of a country's inconvertible papermoney may fall, either because the Government isspending more than it is raising by loans and taxesand is meeting the balance by issuing paper money,or because the country is under the obligation ofpaying increased sums to foreigners for the purchaseof investments or in discharge of debts. Temporarilyit may be affected by speculation, that is to say byanticipation, whether well or ill founded, that one orother of the above influences will operate shortly ;but the influence of speculation is generally muchexaggerated, because of the immense effect which itmay exercise momentarily. Both influences can onlyoperate through the balance of debts, due for im-mediate payment, between the country in question