VI REPARATION, INTER-ALLY DEBT, ETC. 155

are absorbed in other directions, a balance of advan-tage may accrue.

The application of these general principles to theparticular case of ourselves and Germany is easy.Germany 's exports are so preponderantly competitivewith ours, that, if her exports are forcibly stimulated,it is certain that she will have to sell goods againstus. This is not altered by the fact that it is possibleto pick out a few exports or potential exports, suchas potash or sugar, which are not competitive. IfGermany is to have a large surplus of exports overimports, she must increase her competitive sales.In The Economic Consequences of the Peace (pp. 175-185) I demonstrated this at some length on the basisof pre-war statistics. I showed not only that thegoods she must sell, but the markets she must sellthem in, were largely competitive with our own.The statistics of post-war trade show that the formerargument still holds good. The following tableshows the proportions in which her export trade wasdivided between the principal articles of export,(1) in 1913, (2) in the first nine months of 1920 (thelatest period for which I have figures in this preciseform), and (3) in the-four months June to September1921, these last figures representing, I think, a notexactly comparable classification, and being pro-visional only :

[Table