vi REPARATION, INTER-ALLY DEBT, ETC. 165

more certain than that America will not pursue sucha policy to its conclusion ; she will abandon it assoon as she experiences its first consequences. Nor,if she did, would the Allies pay the money. Theposition is exactly parallel to that of German Separa-tion. America will not carry through to a conclusionthe collection of Allied debt, any more than the Allies will carry through the collection of their presentEeparation demands. Neither, in the long run, isserious politics. Nearly all well-informed personsadmit this in private conversation. But we live ina curious age when utterances in the press are deliber-ately designed to be in conformity with the worst-informed, instead of with the best-informed, opinion,because the former is the wider spread ; so that forcomparatively long periods there can be discrepancies,laughable or monstrous, between the written and thespoken word.

If this is so, it is not good business for America toembitter her relations with Europe , and to disorderher export industries for two years, in pursuance ofa policy which she is certain to abandon before ithas profited her.

For the benefit of any reader who enjoys anabstract statement, I summarise the argument thus.The equilibrium of international trade is basedon a complicated balance between the agricultureand the industries of the different countries ofthe world, and on a specialisation by each in the