82 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE ch.

Luxemburg ; 1 as the former figure is a maximum, andthe latter figure is to be slightly less in the earliestyears, we may take the total export to Alliedcountries which Germany has undertaken to provideas 40,000,000 tons, leaving, on the above basis,78,000,000 tons for her own use as against a pre-warconsumption of 139,000,000 tons.

This comparison, however, requires substantia]modification to make it accurate. On the one hand,it is certain that the figures of pre-war output cannotbe relied on as a basis of present output. During1918 the production was 161,500,000 tons as com-pared with 191,500,000 tons in 1913 ; and during thefirst half of 1919 it was less than 50,000,000 tons,exclusive of Alsace-Lorraine and the Saar but includingUpper Silesia, corresponding to an annual productionof about 100,000,000 tons. 2 The causes of so low anoutput were in part temporary and exceptional, butthe German authorities agree, and have not been con-

1 The Reparation Commission is authorised under the Treaty (Part VIII.Annex V. para. 10) "to postpone or to cancel deliveries" if they consider" that the full exercise of the foregoing options would interfere unduly with theindustrial requirements of Germany." In the event of such postponements orcancellations 11 the coal to replace coal from destroyed mines shall receivepriority over other deliveries." This concluding clause is of the greatestimportance, if, as will be seen, it is physically impossible for Germany tofurnish the full 45,000,000 ; for it means that France will receive 20,000,000tons before Italy receives anything. The Reparation Commission has nodiscretion to modify this. The Italian Press has not failed to notice thesignificance of the provision, and alleges that this clause was inserted duringthe absence of the Italian representatives from Paris (Corriere delta Sera,July 19, 1919).

2 It follows that the current rate of production in Germany has sunk toabout 60 per cent of that of 1913. The effect on reserves has naturallybeen disastrous, and the prospects for the coming winter are dangerous.