IV

THE TREATY

83

futed, that some of them are bound to persist forsome time to come. In part they are the same aselsewhere ; the daily shift has been shortened from 8^-to 7 hours, and it is improbable that the powers ofthe Central Government will be adequate to restorethem to their former figure. But in addition, themining plant is in bad condition (due to the lack ofcertain essential materials during the blockade), thephysical efficiency of the men is greatly impaired bymalnutrition (which cannot be cured if a tithe ofthe reparation demands are to be satisfied,—thestandard of life will have rather to be lowered),and the casualties of the war have diminished thenumbers of efficient miners. The analogy of English conditions is sufficient by itself to tell us that a pre-war level of output cannot be expected in Germany .German authorities put the loss of output at somewhatabove 30 per cent, divided about equally between theshortening of the shift and the other economicinfluences. This figure appears on general groundsto be plausible, but I have not the knowledge toendorse or to criticise it.

The pre-war figure of 118,000,000 tons net (i.e.after allowing for loss of territory and consumptionat the mines) is likely to fall, therefore, at leastas low as to 100,000,000 1 tons, having regard tothe above factors. If 40,000,000 tons of this are

1 This assumes a loss of output of 15 per cent as compared with theestimate of 30 per cent quoted above,