v REPARATION 179
cotton and woollen goods, the increase of an exporttrade is dependent upon an increase of the importof the raw material, since Germany produces nocotton and practically no wool. These trades aretherefore incapable of expansion unless Germany isgiven facilities for securing these raw materials(which can only be at the expense of the Allies ) inexcess of the pre-war standard of consumption, andeven then the effective increase is not the grossvalue of the exports, but only the difference betweenthe value of the manufactured exports and of theimported raw material. As regards the other threecategories, namely, machinery, iron goods, and coal,Germany 's capacity to increase her exports will havebeen taken from her by the cessions of territory inPoland, Upper Silesia , and Alsace-Lorraine. As hasbeen pointed out already, these districts accountedfor nearly one-third of Germany 's production of coal.But they also supplied no less than three-quartersof her iron - ore production, 3 8 per cent of herblast furnaces, and 9'5 per cent of her iron and steelfoundries. Unless, therefore, Alsace-Lorraine andUpper Silesia send their iron-ore to Germany proper,to be worked up, which will involve an increase inthe imports for which she will have to find payment,so far from any increase in export trade beingpossible, a decrease is inevitable. 1