i8o THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE ch.

Next on the list come cereals, leather goods, sugar,paper, furs, electrical goods, silk goods, and dyes.Cereals are not a net export and are far more thanbalanced by imports of the same commodities. Asregards sugar, nearly 90 per cent of Germany 'spre-war exports came to the United Kingdom . 1 Anincrease in this trade might be stimulated by thegrant of a preference in this country to Germansugar or by an arrangement by which sugar wastaken in. part payment for the indemnity on thesame lines as has been proposed for coal, dyes, etc.Paper exports also might be capable of some increase.Leather goods, furs, and silks depend upon corre-sponding imports on the other side of the account.Silk goods are largely in competition with thetrade of France and Italy. The remaining itemsare individually very small. I have heard itsuggested that the indemnity might be paid to agreat extent in potash and the like. But potashbefore the war represented 0'6 per cent of Germany' sexport trade, and about £3,000,000 in aggregatevalue. Besides, France, having secured a potash fieldin the territory which has been restored to her, will

production of steel ingots from 20,000,000 tons to 14,000.000 tons, andincrease France's capacity from 5.000,000 tons to 11,000,000 tons.

1 Germain's exports of sugar in 1913 amounted to 1,110.073 tons of thevalue of £13,094,300, of which 838.583 tons were exported to the UnitedKingdom at a value of £9,050,800. These figures were in excess of thenormal, the average total exports for the five years ending 1913 being about£10,000,000.