66
A REVISION OF THE TREATY
CHAP.
In terms of AnnuitiesEstimates of expressed in Milliards
of Gold Marks.
1. Lord Cunlifie and the figure given out in
the British General Election of 1918 1 . 28-8
2. M. Klotz's forecast in the French Chamber,
September 5, 1919 .... 18
3. The Assessment of the Reparation Com-
mission, April 1921 .... 8-28
4. The London Settlement, May 1921 . 4-6 2
The estimate of The Economic Consequences of thePeace (1919), namely 2 milliards, was nearly con-temporaneous with M. Klotz's figure of 18 milliards.M. Tardieu recalls that, when the Peace Conferencewas considering whether a definite figure could beinserted in the Treaty, the lowest figure which theBritish and French Prime Ministers would accept,as a compromise to meet the pressure put upon themby the American representatives, corresponded to anannuity of 10-8 milliards, 3 which is nearly two and ahalf times the figure which they accepted two years laterunder the pressure, not of Americans, but of facts.
There was yet another feature in the LondonSettlement which recommended it to moderateopinion. The dates of payment were so arranged asto reduce the burden on Germany during the firstyear. The Separation year runs from May 1 in each
1 Cf. Baruch, The Making of the Reparation and Economic Sections of theTreaty , p. 46 ; and Lamont, What Really Happened at Paris, p. 275.
2 Assuming exports of 10 milliards, which is double the actual figure of1920.