hi THE BURDEN OF THE LONDON SETTLEMENT 67

year to April 30 in the next; but in the periodMay 1, 1921, to April 30, 1922, only two, instead offour, of the quarterly payments in respect of theexport proportion will fall due.

No wonder, therefore, that this settlement, soreasonable in itself compared with what had precededit, was generally approved and widely accepted asa real and permanent solution. But in spite of itsimportance for the time being, as a preservative ofpeace, as affording a breathing space, and as atransition from foolish expectations, it cannot bea permanent solution. It is, like all its predecessors,a temporising measure, which is bound to needamendment.

To calculate the total burden, it is necessary toestimate the value of German exports. In 1920they amounted to about 5 milliard gold marks. In1921 the volume will be greater, but this will beoffset by the fact that gold prices have fallen to lessthan two-thirds of what they were, so that 4 to 5milliard gold marks is quite high enough as a pre-hminary forecast for the year commencing May 1,1921. 1 It is, of course, impossible to make a closeestimate for later years. The figures will depend, not

1 Exports for the sis months May-October 1921 were valued at about40 milliard paper marks (exclusive, I think, of deliveries of coal and pay-ments in kind to the Allies), as against imports valued at 53 milliardpaper marks. If the monthly export figures are converted into gold marksat the average exchange of the month, the exports for the six months workout at about 1865 million gold marks, or at the rate of rather less than 4milliard gold marks per annum.